Premier David Burt’s recently released Pre-Budget Report and the independent Report released by the Fiscal Responsibility Panel provide a vivid contrast. The PLP document is Government’s political propaganda. The independent document shows our fiscal reality. Both provide important and extremely sobering insights into our Bermuda’s economy and financial performance.
The PLP Government has used the release of its Pre-Budget Report to once again claim economic successes and prudent fiscal management. Yet a closer read of David Burt’s document, together with recent economic data and the FRP Report, reveals the Premier’s self-congratulatory statements to be misleading at best and false at worst.
Government boasts that GDP increased from 2019 through 2023. But 90% of the increase is due to International Business (IB) and financial services. For our local economy (excluding IB & financial services), GDP has barely budged since 2019. And unfortunately that’s what the average Bermudian is feeling today in their pockets every day.
There are other severely troubling indicators of a flat or shrinking local economy that Government is pretending not to notice: container volume is down -9.6% in the first six months of 2024 versus the same period in 2020, and youth enrollment at the Bermuda College was down -23% lower in 2023 than in 2020! Where have our Bermudian youth gone? Why are there fewer imports? We also know from Government reports that there are now fewer jobs on the island since before Covid. All those troubling indicators point to fewer people, fewer jobs, and less true on-island economic activity. Yet the current Government boast about being excellent stewards of our economy?
Government boasts of increased tax revenue, but this uptick is driven by payroll taxes, which in turn will have been boosted by IB bonuses following a good year for the industry in 2023. All Bermudians will be glad to see IB’s success, because IB employs so many Bermudians, but this increased economic activitiy in the IB sector is not due to any initiatives from the current Government, and may not be repeated in the coming years. And the PLP’s proposed small tax cuts to everyone for mobile phone and vehicle registration fees are regressive gifts – that money could and should be spent in a more targeted way for those truly in need. This is just poor tax policy, a feel good gesture designed to soften up voters for the forthcoming election.
The so-called surplus this year and “reduced deficits” in prior years claimed by Government are strictly the results of financial shell games played by the Premier and Finance Minister using borrowed Sinking Fund money. David Burt plans to spend another $40 million from the sinking fund this year. It’s bad enough that he has failed to include this $40 million in the official budget. Worse the FRP Report reveals that $58 million was raided from the fund last year. This is $96 million in total that should have been used to repay debt! In the FRP’s own words, any so-called surpluses are “illusory”.
Finally, the Government boldly announces that it plans to spend almost $150 million of CIT funds in 2025. But, CIT payments won’t be made until August of next year, and tax filings won’t be made until late 2026. That’s almost two years from now. How can the current Government promise to spend money when we won’t even know how much potential CIT revenue the Government may have to work with? This is plain irresponsible.
Given all of the above, and the Government’s well-documented disregard for financial controls in projects like the no-bid ResQwest contract and the Bermudiana Beach Resort, Bermudians should think very carefully about who they want to manage their tax dollars, and ask themselves, “is the current Government properly looking out for me?”. It’s clear, the answer is no.
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