Tropical Storm Ernesto is tracking into the northeast Caribbean Sea, spreading heavy rain, winds and some coastal flooding across the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through Wednesday, before it turns north and intensifies into a hurricane.
Current status: Ernesto is centered near the Leeward Islands and is moving quickly westward. Bands of soaking rain packing gusty winds are spreading through the islands this morning Tropical storm warnings stretch across the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. That means tropical storm conditions (sustained winds 39 mph to 73 mph) are expected in the Leeward Islands today, then spreading toward Puerto Rico late today and tonight.
Lesser Antilles timing and impacts: Ernesto will spread westward from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by later Tuesday through early Wednesday as a tropical storm. It could steadily strengthen as it makes that trek.
Locally heavy rain and tropical storm force winds can be expected in the Leeward islands, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Stronger wind gusts might cause some scattered power outages.
According to the NHC, parts of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico could pick up 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts up to 10 inches during Ernesto. The heavy rain could trigger flooding and mudslides.
Some bands of heavy rain may linger in these areas even after the center of Ernesto has moved north of the area into Wednesday.
Ernesto is expected to make a northward turn sometime Wednesday after leaving Puerto Rico.
This northward turn will occur soon enough to keep it away from the U.S. East Coast.
Ernesto is forecast to become a hurricane after it makes its northward turn. Where exactly it takes that turn could be crucial for any potential impact in Bermuda Friday night or Saturday.
Beyond that, it’s not clear if Ernesto will turn sharply enough toward the east or east-northeast to keep it away from Atlantic Canada early next week.
Photo courtesy of the weather channel
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