By TNN News
With the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season now underway, residents are once again turning their attention to the tropics as forecasters monitor weather conditions across the Atlantic Basin.
The hurricane season officially began on June 1 and runs through November 30. To gain insight into what Bermuda and the surrounding region can expect over the coming months, TNN News spoke with a meteorologist Francis Krebensor from the Bermuda Weather Service.
According to the meteorologist, current forecasts suggest that the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below normal to near normal overall, with fewer tropical storms and hurricanes developing compared to recent years.
“The outlook overall is for a below-normal to maybe near-normal season,” the meteorologist explained. “The central forecasts are definitely predicting a below-normal total number of storms.”
One of the primary factors influencing this year’s forecast is the development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Historically, El Niño has been associated with a reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity.
“That’s largely being driven by the fact that we have El Niño developing in the Pacific Basin,” the meteorologist said. “That tends to reduce the overall number of storms in the Atlantic.”
While fewer storms are expected throughout the season, the Bermuda Weather Service cautions that residents should not become complacent. Even during less active hurricane seasons, Bermuda remains vulnerable to tropical systems.
“When we look at El Niño versus La Niña years, we do see a reduction in the number of storms that have threatened Bermuda,” he explained. “But it can certainly still happen. There are simply fewer storms out there that could potentially impact us.”
As a result, officials continue to encourage residents to remain prepared throughout the six-month hurricane season.
In addition to discussing tropical weather activity, the Bermuda Weather Service also provided an outlook for the upcoming summer months.
Following the recent stretch of rainy weather, many residents are wondering whether Bermuda could experience another summer of record-breaking heat similar to last year, when temperatures climbed into the low 90s Fahrenheit.
According to the meteorologist, while temperatures are expected to be warmer than historical averages, the outlook suggests that conditions may not be quite as extreme as those experienced in 2025.
“With Bermuda, a lot of our temperatures are driven significantly by sea surface temperatures,” he explained. “The forecast for this summer is warmer than normal and warmer than the historical average, but it doesn’t appear that the water temperatures will be quite as warm as they were last year.”
Because Bermuda’s air temperatures are heavily influenced by surrounding ocean temperatures, forecasters are hopeful that the island may avoid the more intense heat experienced during the previous summer.
“The hope would be that our air temperatures respond similarly,” he said. “It’s still going to be hot and humid—it is Bermuda—but hopefully not as bad as last year.”
While long-range forecasts provide valuable guidance, the meteorologist emphasized that weather remains inherently unpredictable and can change rapidly throughout the season.
As Bermuda enters another hurricane season and prepares for the peak summer months ahead, residents are encouraged to stay informed, monitor official forecasts, and ensure hurricane preparedness plans are in place should tropical activity threaten the island.
For now, forecasters are predicting a quieter hurricane season and a warm, humid summer—welcome news for many, but not a reason to let down their guard.
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